The Game Changer_Bengol Election

The Game Changer

BJP's huge election shock defeat in West Bengal coincided with public anger building over covid19 mismanagement. Out of the two target states, Kerala was left midway and AIADMK was handed over the complete handle of the state. Only two states where BJP focussed were Assam and West Bengal. Even Assam's campaign was lukewarm and left to Himanta Biswa Sarma to manage but Bengal remained BJP's apple through the campaign. West Bengal tally does make BJP a credible Opposition in the state but the scale of Mamata Banerjee's victory dwarfs what BJP has achieved in the assembly election. It has eaten into the traditional Congress and Left vote banks in the state and reduced them to a single-digit combine. It will not be far fetched to say that the Congress and the Left will cease to be a credible opposition from today and this space would remain occupied by the BJP for a long time. This game-changing scenario will allow BJP to send at least 2 Rajya Sabha members from the state for the first time but their defeat established Mamata Banerjee's credentials as the David of the assembly elections. She can even be the fulcrum to the opposition parties which are in a deep need of a tall leader who can be their organiser in chief. Unlike Nitish Kumar, who jumped ships frequently, Mamata Banerjee's ideological credentials are well established and in no way can be expected to remain cordial to BJP in coming years.

On the other hand, the results will precipitate a crisis in the Congress Party. The defeat in Kerala will be treated as a personal defeat of Rahul Gandhi who has ended up creating a blind anti-Modi agenda without creating a positive campaign note for Congress in the last decade. The result is that the Left has created history in 40 years and the party has failed to wrest back Assam because of counter polarisation it created after aligning with Badruddin Ajmal. The irony is that Congress has a sense of glee after BJP's defeat in West Bengal not realising that its own house is in tatters. The only consolation is that DMK has swept to power and Congress is the junior partner. Even in Puducherry Congress continues to trail behind the breakaway faction in the state.

This brings us to the issue of the nature of polity which India is staring at today. One truth to emerge is that BJP today stands as the only national party and the national party in opposition ranks continues to have no impact on BJP's fortune. It is a replication of the 1960s when national parties like CPI, Swatantra Party and Jan Sangh had no electoral impact on the Congress except fiery speeches made inside the Parliament. Instead of operating on the principle of bi-polarity which Advani spoke of at length after losing the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Indian polity has resumed its uni-polarity to be only challenged by regional parties during assembly elections. The first time the victory was registered when the right merged with the mainstream parties and the next time it was with the support of the Left and Right that a non-Congress government was propped up in 1990. The result casts Congress finally as a side player till elections are held in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand next year where again it is a bit player in the biggest state.

Lastly, BJP's defeat is not a small thing. Every trick in the book was used to prevent Mamata Banerjee from coming to power. This blind push for power has created a governance issue for the BJP. A national Covid tsunami in the middle of the elections and aggressive campaigning by the BJP's top leadership has sullied its image. This will have a wide repercussion in Uttar Pradesh and also impact national sentiments. Though BJP has three more years of mandate and leaders may feel confident of a repair job, the pandemic is also not going anywhere. It is for this BJP will need to address the governance deficit it has created during the West Bengal elections.